Avocado expansion and the threat of forest loss in Michoacán, Mexico under climate change scenarios

Abstract

Considering the boom in global demand for avocados, this study analyzes avocado expansion in the largest production center in Mexico – the Avocado Belt of Michoacán. A Dinamica EGO 5 land change model was calibrated to avocado expansion between 1995 and 2011 to project future expansion to the year 2050. Given both biophysical and infrastructural variables, it was found that avocado expansion is largely driven by climate, elevation, soil type, and proximity to existing orchards and packing houses. The model projects a total of 3306.45 km2 of avocado in the year 2050, which equals 1785.34 km2 of avocado expansion since 2011, the year of the most recent avocado inventory. This future expansion was allocated under the IPCC's four Representative Climate Pathways (RCPs) and compared to current vegetation maps of the study area. Pine-oak and pine forests are, by far, the forest type most threatened by avocado expansion, and conservation efforts should be directed accordingly. At the same time, oyamel fir forest protection may provide an opportunity for an easy conservation “win,” since it is of high conservation interest and less threatened by avocado expansion.