Aviation in turbulent times

Abstract

The aviation sector is in turbulent times. On top of increased security concerns, oil price rises and health scares, it now finds itself at the centre of the climate change debate. Previously highly resilient to short-term ‘shocks’, it remains unclear as to how the aviation sector will respond to persistent and significant pressure to mitigate its global carbon emissions. From a technological point of view, mitigation is not straightforward, with few, if any, low-carbon technologies available in the short-term and significant time-lags in achieving the necessary penetration of the global fleet. Moreover, many drivers within the sector are aligned towards growth and despite political recognition of the increasing importance of aviation's CO2 emissions, policies encouraging growth of the industry continue to conflict with the climate change agenda. Given the complexity of the aviation system within a dynamic commercial environment, scenarios, rather than economic forecasts, are used here to explore opportunities for the aviation industry to develop within the constraints of the EU's own climate change targets. The scenarios illustrate a variety of feasible aviation futures, but all require other sectors to make emission reductions well in excess of those levels currently envisaged, due to the expansion of the EU's aviation industry within a constrained carbon cap.