Aviation-attributable ozone as a driver for changes in mortality related to air quality and skin cancer

Abstract

Aviation is a significant source of tropospheric ozone, which is a critical UV blocking agent, an indirect precursor to the formation of particulate matter, and a respiratory health hazard. To date, investigations of human health impacts related to aviation emissions have focused on particulate matter, and no global estimate yet exists of the combined health impact of aviation due to ozone, particulate matter and UV exposure changes. We use a coupled tropospheric-stratospheric chemical-transport model with a global aviation emissions inventory to estimate the total impact of aviation on all three risk factors. We find that surface ozone due to aviation emissions is maximized during hemispheric winter due to the greater wintertime chemical lifetime of ozone, but that a smaller enhancement of 0.5 ppbv occurs during summertime. This summertime increase results in an estimated 6,800 premature mortalities per year due to ozone exposure, over three times greater than previous estimates. During the winter maximum, interaction with high background NOx concentrations results in enhanced production of nitrate aerosol and increased annual average exposure to particulate matter. This ozone perturbation is shown to be the driving mechanism behind an additional 9,200 premature mortalities due to exposure to particulate matter. However, the increase in tropospheric ozone is also found to result in 400 fewer mortalities due to melanoma skin cancer in 2006. This is the first estimate of global melanoma mortality due to aviation, and the first estimate of skin cancer mortality impacts due to aviation using a global chemical transport model.