Abstract
Waterfowl and shorebirds are the primary hosts of influenza A virus (IAV), however, in most surveillance efforts, large populations of birds are not routinely examined; specifically marine ducks and other birds that reside predominately on or near the ocean. We conducted a long‐term study sampling sea ducks and gulls in coastal Maine for IAV and found a virus prevalence (1.7%) much lower than is typically found in freshwater duck populations. We found wide year‐to‐year variation in virus detection in sea ducks and that the ocean water temperature was an important factor affecting IAV prevalence. In particular, the ocean temperature that occurred 11 d prior to collecting virus positive samples was important while water temperature measured concurrently with host sampling had no explanatory power for viral detection. We also experimentally showed that IAV is relatively unstable in sea water at temperatures typically found during our sampling. This represents the first report of virus prevalence and actual environmental data that help explain the variation in marine IAV transmission dynamics.
Highlights
Environmental factors have large influences on populations and ecosystems
The set of sample predictor variables, bx, were estimated with categorical coefficients in addition to the baseline detection probability, a, and included the effects of categorical covariates of sampling season defined as the year that sampling was initiated during a sampling period, j (2011–2013; 2015– 2017), the species sampled based on taxonomic order Charadriiformes relative to Anseriformes, and age category of the sampled bird defined as juvenile relative to after-hatch-year age bx 1⁄4 b1;jseasoni þ b2spGulli þ b3ageJi: To examine the effect of ocean temperature we considered potential time lags and different measures of temperature variability to account for the timing of the transmission process and from daily fluctuations in temperature that could influence the environmental component of transmission, respectively
The majority were collected from Common Eiders (Somateria mollissima), with lesser numbers taken from Long-tailed Ducks (Clangula hyemalis), three species of Scoters (Melanitta sp.), Bufflehead (Bucephala albeola), Herring Gull (Larus argentatus), Common Goldeneye (Bucephala clangula), and miscellaneous other species (Appendix S1:Table S3)
Summary
As the world’s climate changes, these influences can be drastic and, to a very large extent, the consequences of climate change are unknown. This is true regarding pathogens and disease transmission and prevalence. Any pathogen that is contact, aerosol, water-borne, or fecally/orally transmitted, necessarily must interact with the physical environment and be able to withstand changes in temperature, humidity, wind, etc.
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
