Avaliação da capacidade de modelos hidrológicos-hidrodinâmicos de larga escala para mapear o risco de inundação no sul do Brasil

Abstract

ABSTRACT Mapping flood risk areas is important for disaster management at the local, regional, and national scales. The aim of this study was to evaluate the ability of large-scale models to obtain flood hazard maps. The models were compared to the estimates developed by the Brazilian Geological Survey (CPRM) for different return periods (RP). The floods were evaluated for the municipalities of Uruguaiana, Montenegro and São Sebastião do Caí in the Rio Grande do Sul state. It was shown that the flood mapping generated by MGB covers larger areas (greater than 1000 km2; Siqueira et al. 2018), with a lower cost of obtaining for large scales. The - Hit Rate of the regional and continental MGB model versions with the CPRM maps ranged from about 40% to 90% in different cities, and the Hit Rate between the regional model and the CPRM map increased with the increased return period floods. The continental model compatibility was similar for all analyzed RPs. Our results suggest the agreement in terms of Hit Rate of current large-scale hydrological-hydrodynamic models to assess flood hazard.