Avaliando o impacto da Covid-19 sobre o apoio à democracia no Brasil: um estudo de painel

Abstract

ABSTRACT Introduction: While substantial shifts in political and social values typically evolve over generational timescales, exceptional disruptive events can occasionally prompt swift changes in societal attitudes. This article investigates the extent to which the Covid-19 pandemic has influenced the level of democratic support among Brazilian citizens. Materials and methods: Our research employed a three-wave online longitudinal panel study (N = 1,301) to assess the attitudes of Brazilian citizens towards democracy at three distinct intervals throughout the Covid-19 pandemic. Our research tool gauged various dimensions of democratic attitudes and inquired about the respondents' experiences with Covid-19 as well as of their close social circles. Utilizing a combination of propensity score matching and a difference-in-differences design, we estimated the causal effect of the Covid-19 experience on both “diffuse” and “specific” support for democracy. Findings: Our analysis revealed that exposure to the virus had limited overall impact on our measures of democratic support. However, we did identify some evidence indicating that severe exposure to Covid-19 had a negative effect on one dimension of democratic support, specifically, diffuse support. Discussion: Our findings underscore the resilience of deeply ingrained ideological beliefs and values. Despite being one of the most disruptive global events in recent history, the Covid-19 pandemic displayed only a modest influence on the foundations of democratic culture. While this suggests that concerns about the pandemic's impact on democratic attitudes may have been overstated, it remains crucial for social and political leaders to remain mindful of actively reinforcing and upholding democratic governance during the post-pandemic recovery phase.