Availability of a probabilistic cost estimation for the price effect of Cu powder and bentonite on an HLW disposal cost in Korea

Abstract

This study aims to demonstrate the availability of a probabilistic cost estimation related to the price effects of Cu powder and bentonite. From a sensitivity analysis of those materials’ prices on the overall disposal costs, it was found that Cu powder was a more dominant cost driver than that of bentonite among the material costs to dispose of 52,000 tU of spent fuels by the deterministic cost estimation method even though the used volume of Cu powder will be smaller than that of bentonite, whereas those conclusions can be changed by a probabilistic cost estimation method. Namely, its conclusion depends on a decision maker's personal opinion because of the resultant uncertainties. The disposal cost includes too many uncertainties due to the long construction and operational durations of a repository. Therefore a probabilistic cost estimation can be useful to provide the information related to an uncertainty.