Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Network Models for Forecasting Energy Consumptions

Abstract

Unlike other sources of energy, electricity can't be stored. Therefore, an estimation of Energy Consumption (EC) with good accuracy is required to manage demand and supply in the smart grid. Not only good accuracy, but reliability is also on-demand in the prediction model to optimize resource allocation. Therefore, in this study we have implemented and examine two different models: a machine learning model, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and a deep learning-based model Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). Although ARIMA showed powerful statistical analysis and less robustness, LSTM demonstrated highly accurate results which may stop us to lead false alarming of over-demand and low consumption of energy. In last, we have concluded our result by presenting significant improvement in forecasting energy by LSTM using various evaluation criteria e.g., Mean Square Error (MSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and other normalized matrices.