Autonomous Vehicles and Energy Impacts: A Scenario Analysis

Abstract

Autonomous vehicles will have tremendous impact on our cities and regions. This rapidly emerging technology will affect the transport system in its entirety including changes in energy consumption; increased safety, climate change impacts, efficiency of transport operations and the platooning of trucks carrying freight. Primary questions remain. What are reasonable expectations of the impact of autonomous and connected vehicles on travel demand, energy consumption, and emissions? Can vehicle to vehicle communication have a significant impact on congestion and vehicle movements that will result in smoother traffic flow and accompanying reductions in energy and emissions? What policies and regulations guiding the operation of autonomous and connected vehicles will be enacted and to what extent will autonomous vehicles penetrate the market over what time period? This article attempts to identify and quantify the impact of autonomous vehicles on energy through development of scenarios that gauge the potential range and contribution of this emerging technology. The scenarios reflect an assessment of the state of practice and current research conducted in both the public and the private sector. Three scenarios are examined in details including energy impacts based on partial or full automation and personal versus a shared vehicle future for autonomous vehicles. There are numerous possible scenarios that may unfold but each will have to be responsive to our multimodal transport system with an objective to optimize modal, technological, financial and energy resources now and in the future.