Abstract
This paper investigates the environmental trade offs resulting from the adoption of autonomous vehicles (AVs) as a function of modal shifts and use phase. An empirical approach is taken to formulate a mode choice model informed from a stated preference (SP) survey conducted in Madison, Wisconsin. A life cycle analysis based on well-to-wheel model is then conducted to quantify the use phase environmental impacts across different categories. The mode choice analysis reveals the potential users of AVs and its attractiveness as a mode of transportation, ultimately competing with traditional modes available. This translates into modal shifts that are shown to result in an expected increase in environmental impacts across all studied categories: energy consumption (5.93%), greenhouse gas emissions (5.72%), particulate matter (6.80%), sulfur (6.85%) and nitrogen oxides (5.70%). The adoption of electric AVs (E-AVs) is then analyzed as an offsetting strategy to combat the increase in environmental impacts. The analysis reveals that E-AVs are capable of offsetting the foreseen impacts, yet their effectiveness is dependent on the electricity generation mix and adoption rate.
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