Autonomous Parametric and Machine Learning Estimation Models Revolutionize Capital Expenditure Process of Engineering and Construction Project in Pttep

Abstract

Abstract Brownfield Cost Excellence is one of PTTEP digital transformation project; to resolve pain points of project cost estimation process for engineers. This project contains 2 development phases, 1st Phase (in 2022) is to provide the calculative features of cost estimator using autonomous parametrical techniques modelled by cost estimation relationships (CERs) of data with dependent variables by plotting the relationships of data on TIBCO Spotfire and using Natural Language Processing (NLP) such as IronPython and R-script to build up calculative features and shaping up Parametric equations of Major Equipment and key bulk material cost curves with prediction of residual. In 2023, 2nd Phase project is focusing on development of cost estimation web-based application which have 6 modules to deliver Major Equipment cost, Bulk Material cost, Construction cost, Tariff cost, Allocation cost including Contingency cost. The calculative of Tariff cost (PTTEP engineer man-hour) is delivered by Machine Learning algorithms which developed by Multiple Regression Equations by joining of 3 different data sources (PTTEP TimeWrite, Project Tracking Information and historical transactions of project expense from SAP). The calculative of allocation cost (builds from historical transaction data of Helicopter/Vessel transportation gathering from legacy logistic system of PTTEP) is also delivered by Machine Learning algorithm developed by connecting of several data sources as similar as the development of Tariff algorithm. Lastly, the contingency cost is aiming to be developed further by collecting gaps between estimated project cost versus actual spending cost of project to diversify its distribution prior to statistically construct contingency algorithm based on each type of project. Ending results given from the cost estimation web-based application are readiness for budget preparation of engineering and construction project which is compiled to AACE estimate class III (Typical purpose of Brownfield cost excellence project is for preparing budget of engineering and construction project in the accuracy range of +30%/-20% in a proper manner).