Automation of Demographic Indicators Calculation and Forecasting Migration Outflows

Abstract

Migration flows and depopulation as a whole are currently having an increasing influence on the demographic, social, economic and political situation in the state and in the regions. In particular, in the municipalities of Kemerovo oblast, the demographic situation is characterized by a decrease in population due to both natural and mechanical loss. To identify trends in the development of demographic situation in the region, it is necessary to conduct forecasting and comprehensive analysis of demographic indicators. The article proposes to consider this problem from the standpoint of automated calculations for forecasting the population size, mix, and migration outflow. The work presents the forecast of size and sex-age structure of the population of municipalities in Kemerovo oblast for 2018-2035 and determines the size of the migration inflow, which is able to compensate for the growing labour shortage. The forecast was made by using the “age-shift” method where the number of people in each age group changes in accordance with the levels of mortality and migration. The article introduces a method for constructing a model of optimal management of municipal budget expenditures where integral indicators characterizing integrated assessments of social and economic attractiveness of a territorial entity for the population are selected as factors affecting the migration outflow of the population. A program providing forecast of migration outflow of the population is presented on basis of the proposed methodology.