Automatic calibration and sensitivity analysis of DISPRIN model parameters: A case study on Lesti watershed in East Java, Indonesia

Abstract

AbstractThe Dee Investigation Simulation Program for Regulating Network (DISPRIN) model consists of eight tanks that are mutually interconnected. It contains 25 parameters involved in the process of transforming rainfall into runoff data. This complexity factor is the appeal to be explored in order to more efficiently. Parameterization process in this research is done by using Differential Evolution (DE) algorithm while parameters sensitivity analysis is done by using Monte Carlo simulation method. Software application models of merging the two concepts are called DISPRIN25-DE model and compiled using code program M-FILE from MATLAB. Results of research on Lesti watershed at the control point Tawangrejeni automatic water level recorder (AWLR) station (319.14 km2) in East Java Indonesia indicate that the model can work effectively for transforming rainfall into runoff data series. Model performance at the calibration stage provide value of NSE = 0.871 and PME = 0.343 while in the validation stage provide value of NSE = 0.823 and PME = 0.180. Good performance in the calibration process indicates that DE algorithm is able to solve problems of global optimization of the equations system with a large number of variables. The results of the sensitivity analysis of 25 parameters showed that 3 parameters have a strong sensitivity level, 7 parameters with a medium level and 15 other parameters showed weak sensitivity level to performance of DISPRIN model.