Automatic analysis framework based on 3D-CT multi-scale features for accurate prediction of Ki67 expression levels in substantial renal cell carcinoma

Abstract

PurposeTo investigate the effectiveness of an automatic analysis framework based on 3D-CT multi-scale features in predicting Ki67 expression levels in substantial renal cell carcinoma (RCC).MethodsThis retrospective study was conducted using multi-center cohorts consisting of 588 participants with pathologically confirmed RCC. The participants were divided into an internal training set (n = 485) and an external testing set (n = 103) from four and one local hospitals, respectively. The proposed automatic analytic framework comprised a 3D kidney and tumor segmentation model constructed by 3D UNet, a 3D-CT multi-scale features extractor based on the renal–tumor feature, and a low or high Ki67 prediction classifier using XGBoost. The framework was validated using a fivefold cross-validation strategy. The Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) method was used to determine the contribution of each feature.ResultsIn the prediction of low or high Ki67, the combination of renal and tumor features achieved better performance than any single features. Internal validation using a fivefold cross-validation strategy yielded AUROC values of 0.75 ± 0.1, 0.75 ± 0.1, 0.83 ± 0.1, 0.77 ± 0.1, and 0.87 ± 0.1, respectively. The optimal model achieved an AUROC of 0.87 ± 0.1 and 0.82 ± 0.1 for low vs. high Ki67 prediction in the internal validation and external testing sets, respectively. Notably, the tumor first-order-10P was identified as the most influential feature in the model decision.ConclusionsOur study suggests that the proposed automatic analysis framework based on 3D-CT multi-scale features has great potential for accurately predicting Ki67 expression levels in substantial RCC.Critical relevance statementAutomatic analysis framework based on 3D-CT multi-scale features provides reliable predictions for Ki67 expression levels in substantial RCC, indicating the potential usage of clinical applications.Graphical abstract