Abstract
Accurate assessment of prognosis in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis remains elusive due to significant individual radiological and physiological variability. We hypothesised that short-term radiological changes may be predictive of survival. We explored the use of CALIPER (Computer-Aided Lung Informatics for Pathology Evaluation and Rating), a novel software tool developed by the Biomedical Imaging Resource Laboratory at the Mayo Clinic Rochester (Rochester, MN, USA) for the analysis and quantification of parenchymal lung abnormalities on high-resolution computed tomography. We assessed baseline and follow-up (time-points 1 and 2, respectively) high-resolution computed tomography scans in 55 selected idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis patients and correlated CALIPER-quantified measurements with expert radiologists' assessments and clinical outcomes. Findings of interval change (mean 289 days) in volume of reticular densities (hazard ratio 1.91, p=0.006), total volume of interstitial abnormalities (hazard ratio 1.70, p=0.003) and per cent total interstitial abnormalities (hazard ratio 1.52, p=0.017) as quantified by CALIPER were predictive of survival after a median follow-up of 2.4 years. Radiologist interpretation of short-term global interstitial lung disease progression, but not specific radiological features, was also predictive of mortality. These data demonstrate the feasibility of quantifying interval short-term changes on high-resolution computed tomography and their possible use as independent predictors of survival in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.
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