Automated Mission Analysis by Markov Chain Techniques

Abstract

A method of estimating the probabilities of availability and dependability, and of showing the effect of maintainability and reliability on cost effectiveness is developed through the use of Markov Chain techniques. Any system may be subjected to one or many mission profiles in its life cycle. The mission profile consists of a number of events where an event is defined as a state which describes the operational status and environmental stresses imposed on the system. Inputs required for this model include failure rates, operational status modifiers, environmental stress modifiers, mean time to repair, and mission events. Outputs of this model are: 1) the probabilities of successfully surviving each sequential mission event, 2) the system availability at any time during the mission, 3) the system dependability, and 4) the logistics required for the system for any time period during the mission profile. An example of one application of this technique to a missile system includes a typical mission profile for a ship-based surface-to-air missile. The method of formulating the problem and the results of an actual computer solution of the Markov Chain Model are given.