Automated Aviation Wind Nowcasting: Exploring Feature-Based Machine Learning Methods

Abstract

Wind factors significantly influence air travel, and extreme conditions can cause operational disruptions. Machine learning approaches are emerging as a valuable tool for predicting wind patterns. This research, using Madeira International Airport as a case study, delves into the effectiveness of feature creation and selection for wind nowcasting, focusing on predicting wind speed, direction, and gusts. Data from four sensors provided 56 features to forecast wind conditions over intervals of 2, 10, and 20 min. Five feature selection techniques were analyzed, namely mRMR, PCA, RFECV, GA, and XGBoost. The results indicate that combining new wind features with optimized feature selection can boost prediction accuracy and computational efficiency. A strong spatial correlation was observed among sensors at different locations, suggesting that the spatial-temporal context enhances predictions. The best accuracy for wind speed forecasts yielded a mean absolute percentage error of 0.35%, 0.53%, and 0.63% for the three time intervals, respectively. Wind gust errors were 0.24%, 0.33%, and 0.38%, respectively, while wind direction predictions remained challenging with errors above 100% for all intervals.