Autocratization—Not an “Illiberal Turn”

Abstract

Abstract This chapter argues that the concept of autocratization is preferable to alternatives such as democratic backsliding, regression, or illiberal turn. By capturing gradual movements away from democracy across a spectrum of institutions and practices, autocratization is a more encompassing and neutral concept. To that end, the chapter provides an operationalization and an overview of the extent of autocratization in the world over the last century, using the new Episodes of Regime Transformation (ERT) dataset, which draws on original data from the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project. We show the extent to which democratization has slowed down and autocratization has intensified during the most recent wave of autocratization. The number of countries in an episode of democratization peaked in 1991 at seventy-nine countries, but has since plummeted to sixteen in 2021. Meanwhile, the number of autocratizing countries increased steadily from five in 1990 to thirty-two. Notably, the third wave of autocratization has involved more democracies than autocracies. In 2019, roughly 74 percent of autocratization episodes (twenty-three of thirty-one) were occurring in countries that began as democracies. According to this analysis, the number of countries experiencing autocratization is at an all-time high, despite a slight decline in recent years. While most episodes of autocratization since the early 1900s occurred in countries already scoring low on democracy, suggesting a tendency for instability in autocracies, recent episodes tend to affect more democratic countries, illustrating the fragility of many third-wave democracies.