Autocratization as Ethnocratization? How Regime Transformations toward Autocracy Deteriorate Ethnic Relations

Abstract

When a country becomes more autocratic, does it affect the relations between ethnic groups in a systematic way? Cross-national and case-based research witnesses how autocratization (the opposite of democratization) is becoming increasingly prevalent, particularly in societies where ethnic relations are politicized and polarized. However, we still lack sufficient knowledge on how autocratization might have an impact on ethnic relations. The paper advances previous autocratization and ethnic studies. It hypothesizes that if a country autocratizes, this further deteriorates its ethnic relations (ethnocratization). It substantiates this claim through a mixed-method design. It starts with a longitudinal analysis at the ethnic group-level, to demonstrate how ethnic discrimination and domination are more probable during autocratization episodes. Next, it examines a collection of international reports on the predicament of ethnic majorities and minorities in countries undergoing autocratization episodes, to identify two causal mechanisms as the main incentives and justifications of the incumbent (and autocratizing) elites: ideological legitimation and authoritarian experimentation. This research encourages scholars on autocratization and ethnic studies to join their efforts, to investigate how democracy and ethnic inclusion can decline in parallel and, thus, to show the reasons why they should advance together.