Autocorrelation analysis of COVID-19 based on hijri calendar

Abstract

Indonesia is a country with a majority of Muslims. The Covid-19 outbreak to Indonesia concerns moments during Islamic holidays. There are many Islamic holidays from March to July, such as Ramadhan, Shawwal, and Eid al-Adha. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between after and before Covid-19 case (lag 1). This study also discussed the relationship among three cases per month for both calendars (Islamic and Gregorian calendar). Auto conversion data from daily to monthly of Hijri and Gregorian was compared by determining the autocorrelation on three cases (confirmed, recovered, and death cases) in both calendars. The auto-correlation test using the Islamic month had 0.747 confirmed cases, 0.711 recovered cases, and 0.461 death reported cases. In the meantime, auto-correlation test using Gregorian month had 0.013 confirmed cases, 0.085 recovered cases, and -0.203 death cases. We also calculated the monthly autocorrelation of Covid19 cases from March to August 2020; the result showed that autocorrelation values were high for both calendars. However, the value of autocorrelation from March to August, Gregorian calendar is higher than Hijri calendar.