Abstract
The normative structure of the international system is changing, driven by the logics of effectiveness and appropriateness. Whereas the balance between democracy and autocracy had clearly favored the former, this appears to no longer be the case. Not only are authoritarian methods spreading because they have been found to be successful, but democracy’s very legitimacy has been eroded from self-doubt and as a consequence of rising and increasingly confident authoritarian great powers. This commentary provides an overview of these trends.
Highlights
The international system is currently going through a profound transition
In March 2014, Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine in a clear act of aggression, violating one of the most sacred post-Second World War European norms prohibiting territorial aggrandizement
Russia has fueled a civil war in eastern Ukraine, which brought sanctions, but little else. 18 months later, Russia intervened militarily in Syria, representing the first time since the end of the Cold War that a great power used force outside of its immediate neighborhood in defiance of American wishes
Summary
The balance between democracy and autocracy, which seemed tilted so far to the former’s advantage during the 1990s and the mid-2000s, appears to be leveling out, with ever more assertive authoritarian states and an increasingly embattled democratic world. This wider environment fosters the creation of new norms, weakens or strengthens those that already exist in line with these changes, and facilitates their spread from one country to another.
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