Australian fur seals at Seal Rocks, Victoria: pup abundance by mark - recapture estimation shows continued increase

Abstract

The abundance of Australian fur seal pups was determined at Seal Rocks, Westernport, Victoria in late December 1997 using a mark–recapture procedure with repeated recapture sessions. Pups (n = 1291) were marked by clipping the black guard hair on the head to reveal lighter underfur. Recaptures from the whole colony were made on eight occasions 1–3 days later. In the recapture sessions, a mean of 32% of sighted pups had been marked. Estimates of pup numbers over the eight recapture sessions were calculated using the Petersen estimate and then combined by taking their arithmetic mean. The combined estimate was 4024 (95% confidence range 3908–4141). In 1991–92, a similar procedure led to an estimate of pup numbers of 2817 (95% confidence range 2703–2930). For both breeding seasons, estimates of pup numbers from each recapture session were also combined assuming a joint hypergeometric distribution; there was little difference in the results from the two procedures, although the confidence intervals for the hypergeometric mean were smaller than those for the arithmetic mean. From 1991–92 to 1997–98, pup numbers increased by 43%, at an exponential rate of 0.059 (95% confidence range 0.0526–0.0664), equivalent to 6.1% per annum (5.4–6.9%). This is greater than the rate of increase of pups at the colony between 1968–69 and 1991–92, which was 0.023 (95% confidence range 0.0198–0.0268), equivalent to 2.4% per annum (2.0–2.7%). Because of the rapid rate of increase of the Australian fur seal colony at Seal Rocks and the importance of the locality for tourism, we recommend that the abundance of pups there be determined every 3–5 years using a mark–recapture technique.