Australian Foreign Policy Stability and Instability: Imperial Friendships and Crises from the Great Depression to the Fall of Singapore

Abstract

Over the past century, crises have enabled the construction of Australian foreign policy orders, or sets of ideas that reduce uncertainty and stabilise interests. However, such ideas have also engendered misplaced certainty and renewed crisis. Developing a constructivist framework, I stress the ways in which ideas can over time impede the use of information and fuel instability and crises. In a staged model, I trace the construction of ties with “great and powerful friends”, their conversion in ways that fuel misplaced certainty, and the construction of crises which advance change. Empirically, I then trace the construction of an early Imperial order, misplaced certainty in UK‐backed austerity and appeasement, and crises in the Great Depression and fall of Singapore.