Australian Fire Danger Rating System Research Prototype: a climatology†

Abstract

Background Historical records of fire weather phenomena provide valuable insights into spatial and temporal trends which can inform further research and are important tools for planning. Aims We outline a 19-year climatology of a Research Prototype (AFDRSRP), of the new Australian Fire Danger Rating System, documenting its spatial and temporal characteristics. Methods The analysis utilises the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s high-resolution reanalysis suite (BARRA), together with fuel data provided by Australian fire agencies. We examine the spatial and temporal distribution of the AFDRSRP. Distributions are categorised by fuel type, analysing relative variability across time and space. Key results The results validate the broad behaviour of the new system and provide insight into the variation of fire danger throughout Australia, adding detail to the understanding of timing of peak fire danger both diurnally and annually. Conclusions While the AFDRSRP differs from the operational system in its fire danger rating categories and tuning of algorithms, it nonetheless provides useful insights into the operational implementation. Implications These results will be essential for planning during fire seasons.