Australia could miss the WHO hepatitis C virus elimination targets due to declining treatment uptake and ongoing burden of advanced liver disease complications.

Jisoo A Kwon,Gregory J Dore,Behzad Hajarizadeh,Jason Grebely,Rebecca Guy,Heather Valerio,Richard T Gray,Maryam Alavi,Yury E Khudyakov

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0257369

Abstract

Australia was one of the first countries to introduce government-funded unrestricted access to direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy, with 88,790 treated since March 2016. However, treatment uptake is declining which could potentially undermine Australia’s progress towards the WHO HCV elimination targets. Using mathematical modelling, we updated estimates for those living with chronic HCV in Australia, new cases of decompensated cirrhosis (DC), hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and liver-related mortality among the HCV-cured and viraemic populations from 2015 to 2030. We considered various DAA treatment scenarios incorporating annual treatment numbers to 2020, and subsequent uptake per year of 6,790 (pessimistic), 8,100 (intermediate), and 11,310 (optimistic). We incorporated the effects of excess alcohol consumption and reduction in progression to DC and HCC among cirrhosis-cured versus viraemic individuals. At the end of 2020, we estimated 117,810 Australians were living with chronic HCV. New cases per year of DC, HCC, and liver-related mortality among the HCV viraemic population decreased rapidly from 2015 (almost eliminated by 2030). In contrast, the growing population size of those cured with advanced liver disease meant DC, HCC, and liver-related mortality declined slowly. The estimated reduction in liver-related mortality from 2015 to 2030 in the combined HCV viraemic and cured population is 25% in the intermediate scenario. With declining HCV treatment uptake and ongoing individual-level risk of advanced liver disease complications, including among cirrhosis-cured individuals, Australia is unlikely to achieve all WHO HCV elimination targets by 2030.

Highlights

Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a global public health threat with 58 million people living with HCV [1], and an estimated 0.29 million liver-related deaths each year, from liver failure and liver cancer [1]
Among people living with chronic HCV in 2015, 28% were in stage F0, 34% were in stage F1, 15% were in stage F2, 14% were in stage F3, and 9% were in stage F4 (Table 2)
Among people living with chronic HCV at end 2020, 24% were in stage F0, 35% were in stage F1, 16% were in stage F2, 18% were in stage F3, and 7% were in stage F4

Summary

Introduction

Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a global public health threat with 58 million people living with HCV [1], and an estimated 0.29 million liver-related deaths each year, from liver failure and liver cancer [1]. In 2015, the World Health Organization (WHO) set global. Impact of DAA treatment on HCV related liver disease. Cepheid, Gilead, Hologic, Indivior, Merck, and Abbvie unrelated to this work. Funders did not have any additional role in the study design, data collection, and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. The specific roles of each author are articulated in the ‘author contributions’ section. [23, 24] [23, 24] [23, 24] [23, 24] [25] [25] [7, 25] [5, 24, 26, 27] [24, 26, 27] [24, 26, 27] [23, 24] [23, 24] [5] [6, 7] [5] [12] [15, 16]

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