Augmented first-order reliability method for estimating fuzzy failure probabilities

Abstract

This paper presents an approach for estimating the fuzzy failure probability associated with reliability problems where uncertainty is characterized through random variables whose distribution parameters are described as fuzzy variables. The main contribution of this work is addressing such problem with the First-Order Reliability Method, with some minor modifications. The epistemic uncertainty is addressed by resorting to an augmented reliability problem. In this way, a single reliability analysis suffices for estimating the membership function associated with the fuzzy failure probability. Numerical results suggest that the proposed approach is most useful for providing an estimate of the membership function associated with the failure probability with reduced numerical costs.