Audience rating prediction of new TV programs based on GM (1.1) envelopment model

Abstract

Audience rating is the core index of TV programs as well as the embodiment of core competitiveness of TV stations. Daily management of TV programs is mainly audience rating-centered. However, posterior survey and evaluation concerning audience rating has been incapable of meeting the demands of daily management of TV stations. It is then an important task for modern TV stations to apply scientific and effective approaches to predict and analyze the audience rating of programs so well as carry out pre-experience control in daily management. On the basis of comprehensive knowledge of the current situation of new TV programs' audience rating management, this paper analyzes the significance of Audience rating prediction of new TV programs in detail;based on the small data quantity and great undulatory property of new programs' audience rating, construct small sample and few information-based GM (1.1) envelopment model to predict and analyze it; in the end, great effect is achieved by verifying the result with some casse study. This paper provides a new method and insight for oscillation series prediction studies under small samples and a few information.