Abstract
Characterized by increasing surface air temperature, global warming has altered the hydrological cycle at global and regional scales. In order to adapt water resources management under the context of global warming, attribution analysis on regional differentiation of water resources in the Yangtze River basin (YRB) was conducted in this study. Meteoro-hydrological variations across the basin were examined for the period 1960–2013, and then a statistic-based method was applied in quantifying the contributions of climate variability and human activities on annual runoff variations in different tributary sub-basins in the YRB. Our observation indicates that both the annual increasing rate and the inter-annual fluctuations of temperature in China and in the YRB were higher than that of the global average since the turn of the century. Climate change analysis indicates that the YRB experienced a hot-wet period during 1994–2002 and a hot-dry period during 2003–2013, since the step change of temperature in 1993. Contributions of climate change and human activities on runoff variations varied spatially in the basin. With reference to the baseline period of 1960–1993, the contribution of climate change played a dominant role in most regions of the basin, especially in those upstream sub-basins. The effect of human activities in the basin was quite complicated, not only its regional differentiation, but also its contribution were opposite during the hot-wet period and the hot-dry period in some sub-basins. The result of this study is helpful in understanding the impacts of climate change and human activities on water resources variation in both temporal and spatial scales.
Highlights
Since the industrial revolution, a large quantity of greenhouse gas (GHG) has been released to the atmosphere by human activity, leading to a series of serious environmental problems
This paper extends on previous studies in quantifying the impacts of climate change and human activities on local water resources variation in both temporal and spatial scales in the Yangtze River basin (YRB)
The current study presents an investigation on quantifying the impacts of climate change and human activities on the variation of water resources in the YRB
Summary
A large quantity of greenhouse gas (GHG) has been released to the atmosphere by human activity, leading to a series of serious environmental problems. The most widely known greenhouse effects are global warming and the subsequent climate change. 0.74 ± 0.18 ◦ C due to the continuous increase of greenhouse gases concentration in the atmosphere [1]. Under this context, there is little debate that climate change will alter the hydrological cycle in a variety of ways [2]. In order to adapt water resources management, investigation on the changes and driving mechanisms of water cycles and water resources at the catchment or regional scale has become. Climate change and human activities are the two fundamental driving factors for water cycle and catchment water resources
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