Attribution Analysis of Runoff Variation in Kuye River Basin Based on Three Budyko Methods

Jiahao Zheng,Xiaohui Jiang,Tong Nie,Yuxin Lei,Yi He

doi:10.3390/land10101061

Abstract

The Loess Plateau is the main soil erosion area within the Yellow River Basin. Quantifying the contribution rate of climate change and human activities to runoff change can provide support for water resources management in the Yellow River Basin. Kuye River Basin is located in the Loess Plateau. As a first-class tributary of the Yellow River, it was selected as the study area. Runoff from the Kuye River Basin has decreased significantly since the 1990s owing to climate change and anthropogenic coal mining. The main objective of this study was to quantify the contribution and sensitivity of climate change and anthropogenic activities to runoff changes using three popular Budyko and elasticity coefficient methods, as well as to compare the similarities and differences among the three methods. The results show that: (1) Through four mutation point test methods, the change point of runoff in the study period of Kuye River Basin is 1997. (2) The elasticity coefficients calculated by the three Budyko methods showed that during the study period, the runoff was more sensitive to changes in precipitation, followed by the catchment surface characteristic parameters and the potential evapotranspiration. (3) All three Budyko methods can yield reasonable contributions of climate change and human activity to runoff changes. The three methods together indicate that the influence of the catchment surface characteristic parameters is the most important factor for the runoff variation in the Kuye River.

Highlights

Significant changes have occurred in the global climate system
The massive coal mining in the northern part of the Kuye River Basin, which started in the 1990s, became one of the important factors in the anthropogenic alteration of the substratum in the basin; Jin et al [45] used the SIMHYD–PML hydrological model to assess the contribution of coal mining to the reduction in runoff of up to 59%, and the large amount of fallowing and reforestation of the Kuye River Basin started after 2000 for policy reasons, which led to a good improvement in Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)
Based on the Budyko hypothesis, three single-parameter controlled Budyko methods were selected, and the elasticity coefficient method was used to analyze the changes in climate change and human activities

Summary

Introduction

Significant changes have occurred in the global climate system. Climate change has a serious effect on the water cycle, as an important medium for the exchange of materials and energy in the natural climate, attracting significant attention [2,3]. Hydrological processes [4] in river basins have changed in the context of global climate change [5,6] As a key link in the water cycle, runoff is an important pathway between surface water and atmospheric water, but it is closely related to the development of human society. With the continuous societal development and progress, changes in the conditions of basin substrates affect regional hydrological processes. A comprehensive understanding of the causes of runoff changes [7] in watersheds and the mechanisms of their hydrothermal balance is necessary to provide an effective scientific basis and potential adaptation policies for watershed and land resource management [8,9]

Objectives

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion