Abstract
In this study, a coupled water–energy balance equation at an arbitrary time scale was proposed as an extension of the Budyko hypothesis. The second mixed partial derivative was selected to represent the magnitude of the interaction. The extended hydrological sensitivity method was used to quantitatively evaluate the impacts of climate change, anthropogenic activities, and their interaction on dry season runoff in the Lhasa River. In addition, an ABCD model, which is a monthly hydrological model included a snowmelt module, was used to calculate the change in soil water and groundwater storage. The Mann–Kendall test, Spearman’s test, dynamic linear model (DLM), and Yamamoto’s method were used to identify trends and change points in hydro-climatic variables from 1956–2016. The results found that dry season runoff increased non-significantly over the last 61 years. Climate change, which caused an increase in dry season runoff, was the dominant factor, followed by anthropogenic activities and their interaction, which led to varying degrees of decrease. This study concluded that the methods tested here performed well in quantifying the relative impacts of climate change, anthropogenic activities, and their interaction on dry season runoff change.
Highlights
The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has long been a focus of international academic concern because it is the source point of many of Asia’s largest rivers and possesses a unique high plateau climate
To verify the applicability of the improved ABCD model in the Lhasa River Basin (LRB), this paper considered the problem from two perspectives: the calibrated parameters and the runoff simulation results
This study proposes an extended hydrological sensitivity method and an improved ABCD model to quantify the impacts of climate change, anthropogenic activities, and their interaction on dry season runoff in the LRB
Summary
The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has long been a focus of international academic concern because it is the source point of many of Asia’s largest rivers and possesses a unique high plateau climate. Lin et al [5] analyzed the characteristics of annual and monthly mean runoff in the LRB from 1956–2003 They observed an increasing trend in annual runoff with two abrupt change points around 1970 and in the early 1980s. Liu et al [6] established the correlation between discharge and temperature using correlation analysis and identified an abrupt change point for winter streamflow. These studies focused more on runoff characteristics at an annual scale or qualitative attribution analysis of streamflow variability, while few addressed extreme hydrological regimes such as floods or low flows in the Lhasa River Basin. To better understand the water cycle and water resources in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and promote responsible
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