Abstract
Using an optimal fingerprinting method and improved observations, we compare observed and CMIP5 model simulated annual, cold season and warm season (semi-annual) precipitation over northern high-latitude (north of 50°N) land over 1966–2005. We find that the multi-model simulated responses to the effect of anthropogenic forcing or the effect of anthropogenic and natural forcing combined are consistent with observed changes. We also find that the influence of anthropogenic forcing may be separately detected from that of natural forcings, though the effect of natural forcing cannot be robustly detected. This study confirms our early finding that anthropogenic influence in high-latitude precipitation is detectable. However, in contrast with the previous study, the evidence now indicates that the models do not underestimated observed changes. The difference in the latter aspect is most likely due to improvement in the spatial–temporal coverage of the data used in this study, as well as the details of data processing procedures.
Highlights
Climate in the Arctic and the northern high latitudes is and will be strongly affected by human-induced forcing from factors such as the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
We have previously linked the observed intensification of high-latitude land area precipitation to human influence using simulations from a limited set of climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and observations with limited spatial coverage ending in year 1999 (Min et al 2008a)
This is typically done by projecting both observations and simulations onto leading empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of internal variability and using the residual consistency check to determine the number of EOFs to be retained in the analysis (Allen and Tett 1999, Allen and Stott 2003)
Summary
Climate in the Arctic and the northern high latitudes is and will be strongly affected by human-induced forcing from factors such as the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. We have previously linked the observed intensification of high-latitude land area precipitation to human influence using simulations from a limited set of climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and observations with limited spatial coverage ending in year 1999 (Min et al 2008a). It is appropriate to revisit the detection and attribution analysis of Min et al (2008a) because essential data for the detection analysis have been improved These include observations for the characterization of past changes and model simulations for the estimation of climate response to external forcing and internal variability.
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
