Attributing Extreme Events to Climate Change: A New Frontier in a Warming World

Abstract

The emerging field of extreme-event attribution (EEA) seeks to answer the question: Has climate change influenced the frequency, likelihood, and/or severity of individual extreme events? Methodological advances over the past 15 years have transformed what was once an unanswerable hypothetical into a tractable scientific question—and for certain types of extreme events, the influence of anthropogenic climate change has emerged beyond a reasonable doubt. Several challenges remain, particularly those stemming from structural limitations in process-based climate models and the temporal and geographic limitations of historical observations. However, the growing use of large climate-model ensembles that capture natural climate variability, fine-scale simulations that better represent underlying physical processes, and the lengthening observational record could obviate some of these concerns in the near future. EEA efforts have important implications for risk perception, public policy, infrastructure design, legal liability, and climate adaptation in a warming world.