Attitudes Toward Nuclear Power: A Longitudinal Analysis of Expectancy-Value Models

Abstract

Three expectancy-value models were applied to attitudes toward a nuclear power plant in a sample of residents that twice completed a survey at 5-year intervals. Attitudes were predominantly favorable at the first survey but became predominantly negative over time. A basic expectancy-value model and two extensions of the model based on factor scores accounted for significant proportions of variance in attitudes at both times. All three models lost some predictive power by the second survey, but the two modifications showed less loss than the basic model. Perceived hazards of the nuclear plant, its potential economic benefits, and its potential to create social disruption were the best predictors of attitudes in the two factor-based models. Findings suggest that attitudes of residents reflected a cognitive trade-off. Implications for expectancy-value models and social impact assessment are discussed.