Attitudes to Vaccination: How the Opinion Dynamics Affects the Influenza Epidemic Process

Abstract

A hypothesis about the influence of the opinion dynamics on the subsequent epidemic process is considered. The existence of relation between the population’s attitude to vaccination and the dynamics of the influenza epidemic is assumed. Emphasis is placed on the spectrum of opinions of the population: from extremely negative to super-positive. Along with persons who are firmly confident in their point of view and propagandize it, there are doubting agents who make their choice to vaccinate or not under the influence of others’ opinions. Their decisions have an impact on the formation of their personal immunity and of the collective immunity of entire population. Opinion dynamics is assumed to be completed before the seasonal influenza rising incidence starts, and each individuum has decided to vaccinate or not until this moment. The purpose of this study is to identify the relationship between the parameters that characterize the opinions’ influence in the population and the number of people who have been infected (vaccinated and unvaccinated) at the beginning of influenza epidemic. Simulation modeling of the dynamics of opinions is carried out using a network model for graphs of various configuration (grid, strongly connected graph, weakly connected graph). Modeling is carried out in a closed population using statistical data on morbidity and annual vaccination campaigns in Russia. The epidemic (SIR) process is represented by modification of the classical Kermack-McKendrick model (1927). A series of repeated simulations was carried out, a numerical experiment based on statistical data and scenario analysis were performed.