Attention-Based Lane Change and Crash Risk Prediction Model in Highways

Abstract

Lane change and crash risk prediction are critical technologies for autonomous driving. An attention-based LSTM model is proposed in this paper for lane change behavior prediction in highways, considering both the surrounding vehicles’ information around the target vehicle at the current time and the historical trajectory data of the vehicle, and it shows higher accuracy and better interpretability than other models. There are two sections in this prediction model, including a pre-judgment model based on the C4.5 decision tree and bagging ensemble learning, and a multi-step lane change prediction model of LSTM with attention mechanism. In addition, the model is applied in the NGSIM datasets to test practicability and accuracy, and the precision of left lane change and right lane change is 98% and 94% respectively 1 second before the vehicle changes lane. Finally, to judge the safety of vehicles in the driving process, a crash risk prediction model based on Time-To-Collision is proposed, which further verifies the effectiveness of the method.