Abstract
It is common knowledge that increasing CO2 concentration plays a major role in enhancement of the greenhouse effect and contributes to global warming. The purpose of this study is to complement the conventional and established theory, that increased CO2 concentration due to human emissions causes an increase in temperature, by considering the reverse causality. Since increased temperature causes an increase in CO2 concentration, the relationship of atmospheric CO2 and temperature may qualify as belonging to the category of “hen-or-egg” problems, where it is not always clear which of two interrelated events is the cause and which the effect. We examine the relationship of global temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration in monthly time steps, covering the time interval 1980–2019 during which reliable instrumental measurements are available. While both causality directions exist, the results of our study support the hypothesis that the dominant direction is T → CO2. Changes in CO2 follow changes in T by about six months on a monthly scale, or about one year on an annual scale. We attempt to interpret this mechanism by involving biochemical reactions as at higher temperatures, soil respiration and, hence, CO2 emissions, are increasing.
Highlights
The phrase “hen-or-egg” is a metaphor describing situations where it is not clear which of two interrelated events or processes is the cause and which the effect
Hypothesis, indicating that hypothesis, both causality directions exist, interpretation of cross-correlations ofboth time causality directions exist, interpretation of cross-correlations of time series of global temperature and series of global temperature and atmospheric CO2 suggests that the dominant direction is T → CO2, atmospheric
The relationship between atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and the global temperature is widely recognized, and it is common knowledge that increasing CO2 concentration plays a major role in enhancement of the greenhouse effect and contributes to global warming
Summary
The phrase “hen-or-egg” is a metaphor describing situations where it is not clear which of two interrelated events or processes is the cause and which the effect. Plutarch was the first to pose this type of causality as a philosophical problem using the example of the hen and the egg, as indicated in the motto above. We note that in the original Greek text, “ἡ ὄρνις” is feminine (article and noun), meaning the hen rather than the chicken. Here, we preferred the form “hen-or-egg” over “chicken-or-egg”, which is more common in English We contend that this must be an error, either an old one in copying of manuscripts, e.g., by monks in monasteries, or a modern one, e.g., in OCR.
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