Abstract
Abstract. The Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) is an international collaborative effort to understand and quantify the uncertainties in atmospheric river (AR) science based on detection algorithm alone. Currently, there are many AR identification and tracking algorithms in the literature with a wide range of techniques and conclusions. ARTMIP strives to provide the community with information on different methodologies and provide guidance on the most appropriate algorithm for a given science question or region of interest. All ARTMIP participants will implement their detection algorithms on a specified common dataset for a defined period of time. The project is divided into two phases: Tier 1 will utilize the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis from January 1980 to June 2017 and will be used as a baseline for all subsequent comparisons. Participation in Tier 1 is required. Tier 2 will be optional and include sensitivity studies designed around specific science questions, such as reanalysis uncertainty and climate change. High-resolution reanalysis and/or model output will be used wherever possible. Proposed metrics include AR frequency, duration, intensity, and precipitation attributable to ARs. Here, we present the ARTMIP experimental design, timeline, project requirements, and a brief description of the variety of methodologies in the current literature. We also present results from our 1-month “proof-of-concept” trial run designed to illustrate the utility and feasibility of the ARTMIP project.
Highlights
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are dynamically driven, filamentary structures that account for ∼ 90% of poleward water vapor transport outside of the tropics, despite occupying only ∼ 10% of the available longitude (Zhu and Newell, 1998)
Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) has the following goals: Goal no. 1: Provide a framework that allows for a systematic comparison of how different AR identification methods affect the climatological, hydrological, and extreme impacts attributed to ARs
Understanding the uncertainties and, importantly, the implications of those uncertainties, is the primary motivation for ARTMIP, whose goals are to provide the community with a deeper understanding of AR tracking, mechanisms, and impacts for both the weather forecasting and climate community
Summary
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are dynamically driven, filamentary structures that account for ∼ 90% of poleward water vapor transport outside of the tropics, despite occupying only ∼ 10% of the available longitude (Zhu and Newell, 1998). ARs are often associated with extreme winter storms and heavy precipitation along the west coasts of midlatitude continents, including the western US, western Europe, and Chile (e.g., Ralph et al, 2004; Neiman et al, 2008; Viale and Nuñez, 2011; Lavers and Villarini, 2015; Waliser and Guan, 2107) Their influence stretches as far as the polar caps as ARs transfer large amounts of heat and moisture poleward, influencing the ice sheets’ surface mass and energy budget (Gorodetskaya et al, 2014; Neff et al, 2014; Bonne et al, 2015). Because ARs play such an important role in the global hydrological cycle (Paltan et al, 2017) as well as for water resources in areas such as the western US, understanding how they may vary from subseasonal to interannual timescales and change in a warmer climate is critical to advancing understanding and prediction of regional precipitation (Gershunov et al, 2017)
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