Abstract
BackgroundThe transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is influenced by environmental determinants. This study aimed to explore the association between atmospheric moisture variability and the transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) for the period of 1991–2010 in Changsha, China.Methods and FindingsWavelet analyses were performed by using monthly reported time series data of HFRS cases to detect and quantify the periodicity of HFRS. A generalized linear model with a Poisson distribution and a log link model were used to quantify the relationship between climate and HFRS cases, highlighting the importance of moisture conditions. There was a continuous annual oscillation mode and multi-annual cycle around 3–4 years from 1994 to 1999. There was a significant association of HFRS incidence with moisture conditions and the Multivariate El Niño–Southern Oscillation Index (MEI). Particularly, atmospheric moisture has a significant effect on the propagation of HFRS; annual incidence of HFRS was positively correlated with annual precipitation and annual mean absolute humidity.ConclusionsThe final model had good accuracy in forecasting the occurrence of HFRS and moisture condition can be used in disease surveillance and risk management to provide early warning of potential epidemics of this disease.
Highlights
The final model had good accuracy in forecasting the occurrence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) and moisture condition can be used in disease surveillance and risk management to provide early warning of potential epidemics of this disease
Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodentborne disease caused by hantavirus, and is characterized by fever, hemorrhage, kidney damage, and hypotension
HFRS was first detected in Hunan Province in 1963, and the highest incidence of the disease was recorded at 13.33/100,000 in 1985
Summary
Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodentborne disease caused by hantavirus, and is characterized by fever, hemorrhage, kidney damage, and hypotension. HFRS was first detected in Hunan Province in 1963, and the highest incidence of the disease was recorded at 13.33/100,000 in 1985. Among Changsha areas, the highest incidence of HFRS was recorded in Ningxiang County, at 101.68/100, 000 in 1994. In northeast China, relative humidity was positively associated with transmission of HFRS [4]. The highest HFRS incidence was recorded at 6.4/100,000, in semihumid areas with precipitation greater than 400 mm. Little is known how the moisture condition, including seasonal variation and annual situation, influence the HFRS transmission in a relatively long period of time. The transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is influenced by environmental determinants. This study aimed to explore the association between atmospheric moisture variability and the transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) for the period of 1991–2010 in Changsha, China
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