Abstract
Means for operational regional forecast of catastrophic weather events in the Black Sea region are presented. It is shown that the flooding in Krasnodar Region, Russia, July 7, 2012 was predicted five days before the tragic events, and the catastrophic storm of November 11, 2007 off the coast of Crimea was also predicted three days in advance. Quality of the regional forecast and its advantages over the global forecast are discussed. The operational regional modeling of the atmosphere in the Marine Hydrophysical Institute (National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine) could become an important element of a possible early warning system for weather disasters in the Azov-Black Sea region.
Highlights
Nowadays, EWS (Early Warning Systems) are discussed at the scientific, national and global levels
The structure and principles of EWS are described in a number of papers and documents
Warning systems of regional and subregional disasters related to weather conditions traditionally focus on warning about violent storms, heavy rainfalls and thunderstorms dangerous for aviation
Summary
EWS (Early Warning Systems) are discussed at the scientific, national and global levels Ministry for Civil Defense, Emergency and Eliminations of Consequences of Natural Disasters, 2013; Shaw et al, 2013]). It is well known how much effort is made to create reliable early warning systems of earthquakes and tsunamis. The structure and principles of EWS are described in a number of papers and documents (see, e.g., [United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, 2006; United Nations, 2006; Waidyanatha, 2010]). Warning systems of regional and subregional disasters related to weather conditions traditionally focus on warning about violent storms, heavy rainfalls and thunderstorms dangerous for aviation (see, e.g., [Clark et al, 2012])
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