Atmospheric Internal Variability in the Summer Indo–Northwestern Pacific: Role of the Intraseasonal Oscillation

Abstract

AbstractSummer atmospheric interannual variability in the Indo–northwestern Pacific (NWP) is coupled with tropical sea surface temperature (SST) variability. This study investigates the importance and origin of atmospheric internal variability in the Indo-NWP region. Using the reanalysis and the 30-member atmospheric model simulation, two SST-related interannual modes are identified in the Indo-NWP region during boreal summer with the month-reliant empirical orthogonal function analysis. The first mode is related to concurrent El Niño–Southern Oscillation originating from the eastern equatorial Pacific whereas the second mode features an anomalous anticyclone (AAC) in post–El Niño summers over the NWP region, known as the Indo-western Pacific Ocean capacitor. The SST-induced modes show temporal persistence from June to August. The residual variability is the focus of this study. The dominant mode of the residual variability displays an AAC structure over the NWP but little month-to-month persistence, indicative of atmospheric internal dynamics unrelated to SST forcing. Further investigation suggests the monthly internal AAC arises from the summer intraseasonal oscillation (ISO). The broad band of ISO yields nonzero monthly means that project strongly onto the AAC pattern. Finally, the anomalies of rainfall and low-level circulation in summer 2016 are investigated. The reversal of the low-level circulation pattern from an AAC in July to an anomalous cyclone over the NWP in August 2016 is due to the ISO-induced internal variability.