Atmospheric discharge and dispersion of radionuclides during the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. Part II: verification of the source term and analysis of regional-scale atmospheric dispersion

Abstract

Regional-scale atmospheric dispersion simulations were carried out to verify the source term of 131I and 137Cs estimated in our previous studies, and to analyze the atmospheric dispersion and surface deposition during the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. The accuracy of the source term was evaluated by comparing the simulation results with measurements of daily and monthly surface depositions (fallout) over land in eastern Japan from March 12 to April 30, 2011. The source term was refined using observed air concentrations of radionuclides for periods when there were significant discrepancies between the calculated and measured daily surface deposition, and when environmental monitoring data, which had not been used in our previous studies, were now available. The daily surface deposition using the refined source term was predicted mostly to within a factor of 10, and without any apparent bias. Considering the errors in the model prediction, the estimated source term is reasonably accurate during the period when the plume flowed over land in Japan. The analysis of regional-scale atmospheric dispersion and deposition suggests that the present distribution of a large amount of 137Cs deposition in eastern Japan was produced primarily by four events that occurred on March 12, 15–16, 20, and 21–23. The ratio of wet deposition to the total varied widely depending on the influence by the particular event.