Abstract
This study uses an interdisciplinary approach to investigate variability in fire weather, fire activity and fire management decision spaces from three separate perspectives. We used time series analysis to identify periodic and quasi-periodic components of fire weather measures at second, hourly, daily, yearly, and multi-decadal resolution in 3 ecozones in western Canada. Examples of relationships between scales of fire weather and fire activity were taken from the literature. Through interviews with and observation of Canadian wildland fire management agencies we identified 20 typical decision problems which we mapped to 16 spatio-temporally cohesive decision spaces extending from incident to national levels and immediate to multi-decadal time spans. To connect these domains, we propose that space time cascades of atmospheric kinetic energy are reflected in an inverse cascade of wildfire activity, and shape the spatio-temporal dimensions of decision spaces and the pace of fire management decisions. The atmospheric cascades framework could be expanded to include ecological impacts and to link changes in forcing mechanisms such increasing atmospheric CO2, to fire management.
Highlights
Much early wildland fire research sought to relate changing daily weather to fire potential in fire danger rating systems to inform prevention and preparedness decisions (Taylor and Alexander, 2006; Hardy and Hardy, 2007)
During 2010 we carried out a set of structured interviews with approximately 20 staff of the 12 Canadian provincial and territorial wildfire management agencies, Parks Canada, and the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre regarding fire management planning and decision making processes that were used in each agency
In Canada, fire management is decentralized among 13 autonomous provincial and territorial agencies that have the primary responsibility for natural resource management in the Canadian federation, with only one federal agency, Parks Canada, managing fire in national parks
Summary
Much early wildland fire research sought to relate changing daily weather to fire potential in fire danger rating systems to inform prevention and preparedness decisions (Taylor and Alexander, 2006; Hardy and Hardy, 2007). Weather Shapes Fire Management Decisions note that “the host of processes, timescales and sequences of atmospheric forcing that conspire in wildfire occurrence, behavior and growth, varies geographically and remains challenging to integrate in both research studies and operational fire management alongside the increasingly complex human environment.”. Spatio-temporal variability in atmospheric quantities and processes important to fuel moisture, fire ignition and growth (e.g., lightning, solar radiation, temperature, relative humidity, potential evaporation, and wind speed) is a result of interactions between incoming solar radiation, land cover and oceanic and atmospheric circulation. Spatio temporal differences in radiative heating are further modified by cloud cover and the albedo of the surface (e.g., water, vegetation, rock, snow, and ice). These gradients in surface heating set up horizontal and vertical pressure gradients, and atmospheric circulation. Atmospheric eddies can have dimensions from a millimeter to thousands of miles and have lifespans seconds to months; climate variability extends further over millions of years (Lovejoy and Schertzer, 2010)
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