Atmospheric bias teleconnections in boreal winter associated with systematic sea surface temperature errors in the tropical Indian Ocean

Abstract

Abstract. Coupled climate models suffer from significant sea surface temperature (SST) biases in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO), leading to errors in global climate predictions. In this study, we investigate the local and remote effects of the TIO SST bias on the simulated atmospheric circulation and spatio-temporal variability – bias teleconnections. A set of century-long simulations forced by idealized SST perturbations, which resemble various (monopolar or dipolar, positive or negative) TIO SST biases in coupled climate models, are conducted with an intermediate-complexity atmospheric model. Bias teleconnections with a focus on boreal wintertime are analysed using the normal-mode function (NMF) decomposition, which can differentiate between balanced and unbalanced flows across spatial scales. The results show that the atmospheric circulation biases caused by the TIO SST bias have the Gill–Matsuno-type pattern in the tropics and Rossby-wave-train structure in the extratropics, similar to the steady-state response to tropical heating perturbations. The teleconnections between the tropical and extratropical biases are set up by Rossby wave activity flux emanating from the subtropics. Over 90 % of the bias variance (i.e. the square of the bias amplitude) is contained in zonal wavenumbers k≤5. The northward shift of the SST bias away from the Equator weakens the amplitude but does not change the spatial structure of the atmospheric response. Besides, the positive SST bias produces stronger bias teleconnections than the negative one of the same size and magnitude. In the NMF framework, the change in the spatial variance of the time-mean state (i.e. energy) is equal to the sum of the bias variance and the covariance between the circulation bias and the reference state (i.e. bias covariance). Due to the TIO SST biases, the global unbalanced zonal-mean (k=0) flow energy decreases, whereas its balanced counterpart increases. These changes primarily arise from the strong bias covariance. For k>0, both the global unbalanced and the tropical balanced energies increase in the case of a monopolar SST bias and decrease in the case of a dipolar SST bias. The increase appears mainly as the bias variance, whereas the decrease is associated with a strong negative bias covariance at k=1 and 2. In contrast, the extratropical balanced wave energy decreases (increases) when the TIO SST bias is positive (negative), which is mainly associated with the bias covariance at k=1. The change in the interannual variance (IAV) is contingent upon the sign of the TIO SST bias. A positive bias reduces, whereas a negative one increases, the IAV in both balanced and unbalanced flows. Geographically, large IAV changes are observed in the tropical Indo-West Pacific region, Australia, South and Northeast Asia, the Pacific-North America region, and Europe, where the background IAVs are strong.