Atmospheric and Oceanic Factors Related to the Increasing Summer High Temperature Extremes on the Tibetan Plateau under the Background of Global Warming

Abstract

Abstract The related atmospheric and oceanic factors are investigated in this analysis to understand the natural attributes responsible for the significant increase of the high temperature extremes (HTEs) on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in summer. It is found that a stronger-than-normal South Asian high (SAH) and corresponding weaker-than-normal East Asian jet, an anomalous anticyclone and intensified midlevel westerly wind over the TP, and a more extensive, stronger, farther westward- and northward-stretching western Pacific subtropical high motivate more occurrences of HTEs over the TP on the interannual time scale. From 1961 to 2021, these crucial circulation patterns show a significant changing trend favorable for the occurrence of HTEs and thus contribute to its great increase. Further, the significant warmings of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical western Indian, northern North Pacific, and western North Atlantic Oceans make great contributions through different air–sea interactive processes as the Matsuno–Gill response, zonal vertical circulation cell, and mid- to high-latitude teleconnection wave train, respectively. Meanwhile, the interdecadal variability plays an important role. A breakpoint at the early twenty-first century is detected in the occurrence of summer HTEs on the TP. Both the crucial circulation patterns and the SST anomalies in the key oceanic regions experienced significant interdecadal transition to favor the occurrence of HTEs. In particular, the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) is significantly and positively correlated with the interdecadal variation of summer HTEs on the TP. The zonal teleconnection wave train triggered by AMO forms a stronger-than-normal SAH and strengthened midlevel westerly airflow over the TP, conducive to the increase of summer HTEs on the TP.