Atlantic storm modeling using the empirical orthogonal functions of sea surface temperatures

Abstract

Recently, both the numbers and intensities of Atlantic tropical storms show an upward trend under the global warming condition. Statistical models play a very important role in understanding how the climate factors such as the cycle of El Ni~no/La Ni~na, the pattern of the northern hemisphere jet stream and tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures influence tropical storm activity. This paper proposes a hierarchical and statistical model which predicts the number of the Atlantic tropical storms using sea surface temperatures. Especially, Atlantic sea surface temperatures are incorporated into the model through empirical orthogonal functions. The proposed model is illustrated using the climate data during 1900-2002.