ATLANTIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND NEW ENGLAND SNOWFALL

Abstract

This paper examines the possibility of an association between winter (December-March) snowfall in New England and sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the adjacent Atlantic Ocean. Regional snowfall indices for southern and northern New England were obtained by rotated principal components analysis (PCA). Composite maps of winter Atlantic SSTAs and 700-mb geopotential height anomalies were generated for cases of above and below average winter snowfall totals for southern and northern New England, respectively. A monthly index of SSTAs around the coast of New England was obtained from rotated PCA of SSTAs in the western Atlantic Ocean and compared for high snow and low snow cases. In northern New England, no direct association between snowfall and SSTAs is indicated by either the composite maps or the monthly SSTA index - high or low snowfall totals can be attributed primarily to anomalies in the 700-mb circulation. In southern New England, high (low) snowfall totals are associated with negative (positive) SSTAs off the Atlantic coast, and these anomalies are often already evident in December, suggesting Atlantic sea surface temperatures may be of utility in long-range winter forecasts for coastal regions.