Abstract

Potential future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics are among the more serious regional threats of global climate change. Therefore, a better understanding of how anthropogenic climate change may affect TCs and how these changes translate in socio-economic impacts is required. Here, we apply a TC detection and tracking method that was developed for ERA-40 data to time-slice experiments of two atmospheric general circulation models, namely the fifth version of the European Centre model of Hamburg model (MPI, Hamburg, Germany, T213) and the Japan Meteorological Agency/ Meteorological research Institute model (MRI, Tsukuba city, Japan, TL959). For each model, two climate simulations are available: a control simulation for present-day conditions to evaluate the model against observations, and a scenario simulation to assess future changes. The evaluation of the control simulations shows that the number of intense storms is underestimated due to the model resolution. To overcome this deficiency, simulated cyclone intensities are scaled to the best track data leading to a better representation of the TC intensities. Both models project an increased number of major hurricanes and modified trajectories in their scenario simulations. These changes have an effect on the projected loss potentials. However, these state-of-the-art models still yield contradicting results, and therefore they are not yet suitable to provide robust estimates of losses due to uncertainties in simulated hurricane intensity, location and frequency.

Highlights

  • Tropical storms and hurricanes are among the most destructive natural hazards leading to enormous socioeconomic impacts, as the example of hurricane Katrina demonstrated in 2005

  • As for the ECHAM5, the CTRL simulation of the MRI/JMA model overestimates the total number of cyclones due to multiple counts of split tracks leading to a strong increase in SScat 1 tropical cyclone (TC) (Fig. 3b)

  • This study combines observational and modelled data with an empirical loss model to assess the impact of future climate change on hurricane characteristics and associated insurance losses in the North Atlantic

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Summary

Introduction

Tropical storms and hurricanes are among the most destructive natural hazards leading to enormous socioeconomic impacts, as the example of hurricane Katrina demonstrated in 2005. Less attention was given to the economic impact of the projected changes To fill this gap, we connect output of general circulation models with a loss model. Emanuel (2005) showed a direct relation between the higher sea surface temperatures (SST) and the intensity of TCs. Former empirical studies Numerous model studies show that the number of TCs decrease, whereas their intensity tends to increase in a warmer climate Emanuel et al (2008) systematically analysed the IPCC AR4 simulations using a downscaling approach (Emanuel, 2006; Emanuel et al, 2006), showing a general agreement with the former findings They report a large model-to-model variability suggesting an inherently large uncertainty in such projections.

Data and methods
Scaling of TC intensities
TC changes in future scenarios
Estimated insurance losses
Findings
Discussion and conclusions
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