Abstract
Long-term hurricane predictions have been of acute interest in order to protect the community from the loss of lives, and environmental damage. Such predictions help by providing an early warning guidance for any proper precaution and planning. In this paper, we present a machine learning model capable of making good preseason-prediction of Atlantic hurricane activity. The development of this model entails a judicious and non-linear fusion of various data modalities such as sea-level pressure (SLP), sea surface temperature (SST), and wind. A Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) was utilized as a feature extractor for each data modality. This is followed by a feature level fusion to achieve a proper inference. This highly non-linear model was further shown to have the potential to make skillful predictions up to 18 months in advance.
Highlights
A tropical cyclone (TC) is a rotating storm system over the tropical ocean
As the dimensionality of the space increases the sparsity of projected data increases exponentially, reducing the predictive power of the model [5]. We address this challenge by oversampling our ground truth data. In this sequel, a Fused Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) architecture which uses the data from various modalities like sea level pressure, sea surface temperature, wind speed etc to capture long term predictions on some well-known one-dimensional indices which are well correlated with hurricane activity
We developed a Fused-CNN architecture for the prediction of various one-dimensional indices related to hurricane activity in the Atlantic ocean
Summary
A tropical cyclone (TC) is a rotating storm system over the tropical ocean. Its strength and location earn it different names. The strength of a cyclone is categorized by maximum wind-speed at a given time. A TC can be either a Depression, a Tropical Storm (TS), a Hurricane or a Major Hurricane as its strength increases. Within the Northern Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins, a tropical cyclone with wind speeds of over 65 knots is called a hurricane. Our focus in this work is on the hurricanes in the North Atlantic basin, where the season starts on 1 June each year and ends on 30 November. TCs may occur outside the hurricane season, such occurences are rare
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
