Asymptotic Perturbation Bounds for Probabilistic Model Checking with Empirically Determined Probability Parameters

Abstract

Probabilistic model checking is a verification technique that has been the focus of intensive research for over a decade. One important issue with probabilistic model checking, which is crucial for its practical significance but is overlooked by the state-of-the-art largely, is the potential discrepancy between a stochastic model and the real-world system it represents when the model is built from statistical data. In the worst case, a tiny but nontrivial change to some model quantities might lead to misleading or even invalid verification results. To address this issue, in this paper, we present a mathematical characterization of the consequences of model perturbations on the verification distance. The formal model that we adopt is a parametric variant of discrete-time Markov chains equipped with a vector norm to measure the perturbation. Our main technical contributions include a closed-form formulation of asymptotic perturbation bounds , and computational methods for two arguably most useful forms of those bounds, namely linear bounds and quadratic bounds . We focus on verification of reachability properties but also address automata-based verification of omega-regular properties. We present the results of a selection of case studies that demonstrate that asymptotic perturbation bounds can accurately estimate maximum variations of verification results induced by model perturbations.