Asymptotic independence ex machina: Extreme value theory for the diagonal SRE model

Abstract

We consider multivariate stationary processes satisfying a stochastic recurrence equation of the form , where are i.i.d. random vectors and are i.i.d. diagonal matrices and (Mt) are i.i.d. random variables. We obtain a full characterization of the vector scaling regular variation properties of , proving that some coordinates Xt, i and Xt, j are asymptotically independent even though all coordinates rely on the same random input (Mt). We prove the asynchrony of extreme clusters among marginals with different tail indices. Our results are applied to some multivariate autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (BEKK‐ARCH and CCC‐GARCH) processes and to log‐returns. Angular measure inference shows evidences of asymptotic independence among marginals of diagonal SRE with different tail indices.